President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are cratering. Even his Make America Great Again, or MAGA, diehards have reservations.

This fact was evident to me when I attended MAGA rallies in three states on Oct. 24-25, 2026. One was a Turning Point USA get-out-the-vote event outside Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

Along with a few dozen America First stalwarts wearing white “America the Beautiful” caps, I sat on a wooden table under a small picnic pavilion listening to speakers such as MAGA activist Scott Presler and Trump-endorsed U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser. Meuser reeled off MAGA talking points, including the supposed threat posed by transgender athletes and bathroom use, immigrant voter fraud and the “billionaire anarchist George Soros.”

Remarkably, the speakers barely mentioned Trump. The audience clapped politely, but the energy was tepid compared to the many MAGA rallies I attended in 2024, when the Pennsylvania landscape was dotted with Trump and MAGA signs. This time I saw none.

The numbers bear out what I observed.

A mid-October 2026 poll found that only a third of U.S. adults approve of the job Trump is doing; 71% feel the country is on the wrong track. The majority of Americans are pessimistic. A growing number worry about government corruption.

The reason?

There’s the war with Iran that has resulted in U.S. soldiers being killed and wounded. The conflict is costing billions of dollars and spiked the price of gas. But most of all, Trump has lost support on the economy amid growing inflation and an affordability crisis.

Remarkably, despite the headwinds, many of Trump’s MAGA loyalists still back him. This point was underscored by the Harrisburg event I attended as well as Trump’s midterm rallies, where attendees still enthusiastically chant “U.S.A.” and are decked out in red caps and MAGA merch.

Why?

I’m an anthropologist who has been studying Trump and his MAGA movement for years. I wrote a newly updated book, “It Can Happen Here,” on Trumpism and U.S. history. I have previously written about why people voted for Trump in 2024.

Based on my research, I see three key reasons some voters still back him. Meuser stressed all three at the Harrisburg rally as he warned of “lunatic” left socialism while extolling the Trump administration’s track record, including the immigration crackdown.

1. Socialist doomsday ‘fear porn’

While nervous about the war and inflation, many Trump supporters respond to fearmongering about “radical left” Democrats, some of whom, Trump contends, want to drive the country off a communist cliff.

If Trump has long harped on this putative radical left danger, his warnings have gained new traction with the visibility of progressive hard-liners like Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and the democratic socialist mayor of New York, Zohran Mamdani.

Beyond the threat of socialism, Trump claims that under Democrats the U.S. would fall back into a “dark age” of economic mayhem, curtailed rights and religious freedoms, rampant crime and imperiled national security. MAGA stalwarts echo his warning of “Doomsday” scenarios.

To underscore this point, Trump and his loyalists are connecting the massive and sometimes destructive protests in France to democratic socialists and the “radical left.”

For example, the White House posted a video on X featuring rioting and arson in France which warns, “Pay attention before it’s too late. This is the future Democrats want for America.” Other Trump supporters warn the unrest illustrates the civilizational threat of immigration and a looming “global Islamic takeover.”

MAGA pundits like Jesse Watters and Greg Gutfeld are encouraging this use of what they call “fear porn” to drive the 2026 midterm vote.

2. Border ‘invasion’ shut down

Trump won in 2024 largely due to two bread-and-butter election issues: the economy and immigration.

While those on the left focus on the abuses of Trump’s immigration agents, many Trump supporters I have spoken to credit him for clamping down on what they view as a Biden-era border “invasion.” It resulted, they claim, in the influx of millions of “illegal aliens,” some dangerous criminals, who have strained U.S. cities and taken jobs from citizens.

These Trump-supporting immigration restrictionists argue that reports of abuses by Immigration and Customs Enforcement are exaggerated and the need for mass deportations is urgent. If anything, some contend that Trump hasn’t done nearly enough in this regard.

MAGA loyalists give Trump higher marks on immigration than any other major issue, which is why the Trump administration foregrounds immigration as one of its top “promises kept.” This is why, in Harrisburg, attendees were told that when they went to knock on doors later in the day, they should mention Trump’s promises kept, including “No. 1, a closed border.” The tax cuts and drop in crime were Nos. 2 and 3.

3. ‘America is winning … bigly!’

Trump supporters feel the economic pinch. Some are unhappy about the war. But, they contend, Trump – who wrote the book “The Art of the Deal” – always has a long-term strategy and winning hand.

The proof?

Supporters point to Trump’s long and self-described successful business career and note what they perceive as the many successes of Trump’s first term.

And they contend that Trump has already delivered. As pro-Trump radio host Dan O’Donnell recently put it, under Trump “America is winning … bigly.”

Trump’s 2025 “One Big Beautiful Bill” cut taxes and government spending while delivering on campaign promises such as “no tax on tips” or overtime. Meanwhile, crime rates have plummeted, while the stock market has reached new highs.

A White House Jan. 20, 2026, press release – “365 WINS IN 365 DAYS; President Trump’s Return Marks New Era of Success, Prosperity” – lists a win for each day of the second term’s first year, some of which fact-checkers have shown are exaggerated. They range “from negative net migration for the first time in 50 years to the largest homicide drop on record, trillions in reshored investments, peace deals ending multiple wars, record energy production and massive bureaucracy cuts.”

MAGA stalwarts, like Trump, are sharing lists of such accomplishments, including Top 25 lists, to turn out the vote.

Trump’s bad polling numbers, some suggest, are the result of an anti-Trump “fake news” psyop. The reality, they say, is that Trump has launched, as he calls it, the “golden age of America.”

A Trump midterm ‘golden wall’?

Does this hardcore base of Trump voters create a “golden wall” that will head off the major midterm gains many expect Democrats to make? This possibility emerges especially in light of polling that has historically underestimated Trump voter strength.

But from my perspective, probably not.

There are splits in MAGA that I have observed firsthand at MAGA gatherings, such as the Conservative Political Action Conference and Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest. The war in Iran has been at the center of the dispute, with some – including former U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and commentators Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly – condemning what they call an “Israel First” faction for betraying MAGA’s “America First” principles.

In contrast, Democrats appear more energized.

Historically, the opposition party almost always makes gains during midterm elections – especially when there are economic troubles. And some wonder whether Trump supporters will turn out when he isn’t on the ballot.

Given the war and affordability crisis, it seems likely Trump’s “golden wall” of MAGA diehards, like those I saw at the Harrisburg rally, won’t be enough to stave off significant midterm losses, including control of the House of Representatives.

The question then will be what, if anything, Trump and his MAGA supporters will do about it.

Alex Hinton receives funding from the Rutgers-Newark Sheila Y. Oliver Center for Politics and Race in America