The longer someone stays in school, the more likely they are to delay getting married – but education does not reduce the overall likelihood of being married later in life, according to our research recently published in Education Economics. Education also influences who Americans marry: Obtaining a four-year degree vs. just a high school diploma more than doubles someone’s likelihood of marrying a fellow college graduate.

Previous research has documented that the more education you have, the more likely you are to get married. But correlation does not imply causality, and plenty of other factors influence marriage and education.

My research with economist Kunwon Ahn provides evidence that there is indeed a causal link between education and marriage – but it’s a nuanced one.

Our study applies economic theory and advanced statistics to a 2006-2019 sample from the American Community Survey: more than 8 million people, whom we divided into different cohorts based on birthplace, birth year and self-reported ancestry.

To isolate the causal relationship, we needed to sidestep other factors that can influence someone’s decisions about marriage and education. Therefore, we did not calculate based on individuals’ own education level. Instead, we estimated their educational attainment using a proxy: their mothers’ level of education. On the individual level, plenty of people finish more or less education than their parents. Within a cohort, however, the amount of schooling that mothers have, on average, is a strong predictor of how much education children in that cohort received.

We found that an additional year of schooling – counting from first grade to the end of any postgraduate degrees – reduces the likelihood that someone age 25 to 34 is married by roughly 4 percentage points.

Among older age groups, the effects of education were more mixed. On average, the level of education has almost zero impact on the probability that someone age 45 to 54 is married. Among people who were married by that age, being more educated reduces their likelihood of being divorced or separated.

However, more education also makes people slightly more likely to have never been married by that age. In our sample, about 12% of people in that age group have never married. An additional year of education increases that, on average, by 2.6 percentage points.

Why it matters

Marriage rates are at historical lows in the United States, especially for young people. Before 1970, more than 80% of Americans 25 to 34 were married. By 2023, that number had fallen to only 38%, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Over the same time, the percentage of Americans with a college degree has increased considerably. Additional education can increase someone’s earning potential and make them a more attractive partner.

Yet the rising costs of higher education may make marriage less attainable. A 2016 study found that the more college debt someone had, the less likely they were to ever marry.

While marriage rates have fallen across the board, the drop is most pronounced for lower-income groups, and not all of the gap is driven by education. One of the other causes may be declining job prospects for lower-income men. Over recent decades, as their earning potential has dwindled and women’s job options have grown, it appears some of the economic benefits of marriage have declined.

Declining marriage rates have important effects on individuals, families and society as a whole. Many people value the institution for its own sake, and others assign it importance based on religious, cultural and social values. Economically, marriage has important consequences for children, including how many children people have and the resources that they can invest in those children.

What still isn’t known

Education levels are only part of the explanation for trends in marriage rates. Other cultural, social, economic and technological factors are likely involved in the overall decline, but their exact contribution is still unknown.

One idea gaining traction, though little research has been done on it, considers the ways smartphones and social media may be reducing psychological and social well-being. We stay in more, go out less, and are increasingly divided – all of which could make people less likely to marry.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

John V. Winters does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.