Amid deep political polarization and extreme campaign rhetoric, the U.S. presidential election on November 5 is likely to be decided by a small number of voters in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan. But why is it so close?

In this episode of The Conversation Weekly podcast, Naomi Schalit, senior politics editor at the The Conversation U.S., speaks to Jesse Rhodes, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst, who has been surveying Americans on the issues that matter to them, and their concerns as the election approaches.

Jesse Rhodes says it’s easy to be flabbergasted that the 2024 U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be so close.

“Donald Trump has been so extreme, had been involved in an insurrection against the federal government in 2020 and is making fairly authoritarian remarks during the campaign.”

But initial results from the latest round of the UMass Amherst poll, which Rhodes co-directs, show, he says, that many Americans seem to be treating this as a “pretty normal election” with good arguments for both sides. Its latest poll, conducted by YouGov, was a survey of 1,500 Americans and took place between Oct. 11 and Oct. 16, 2024.

“Something that we’re seeing and I think helps explain the tightness of this election cycle is just how important the economy is in Americans’ perceptions … and that they trust Donald Trump more on the economy than they do Kamala Harris.”

The poll found supermajorities perceive both the state of the economy and their own economic situation as being fair or poor, and 54% of respondents said they believed Trump is better suited to handling the economy and making it grow.

Motivated by fear and hope

The UMass Amherst poll asked respondents to imagine a Trump or Harris victory, and then asked them to choose from a range of emotions, including fear, hope, relief, anger, disappointment and pride. Rhodes notes:

“When we ask how people would feel if Trump won, the dominant emotion would be disappointment, at 40%, but followed very closely by fear at 39% … If Kamala Harris wins, the predominant emotion with 41% is relief … About a third, 33% of respondents, say that they would experience fear if Harris wins.”

The survey also showed 42% of Americans say they would feel hope if Harris won, compared to 37% feeling hopeful if Trump won.

The results also show a big gender gap in perceptions of the candidates. Around 50% of the men surveyed and 43% of women said they planned to vote for Trump. In comparison, 44% of men said they intended to vote for Harris, and 50% of women. Rhodes said:

“It’s almost a mirror image there, which reflects a longstanding dynamic in our politics where women are more likely to vote for Democratic candidates, men are more likely to vote for Republican candidates. This also reflects the context in which reproductive rights and reproductive health issues are very salient.”

To listen to the full interview with Jesse Rhodes, listen to The Conversation Weekly podcast.

Disclosure statement: Jesse Rhodes receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the Spencer Foundation, and Demos.

This episode of The Conversation Weekly was produced by Katie Flood with assistance from Mend Mariwany. Sound design was by Michelle Macklem, and our theme music is by Neeta Sarl.

Newsclips in this episode from CBS Boston, PBS NewsHour, Global News, CBS News, AlJazeera English, BBC News, The Telegraph, Washington Post, ABC News, CBS News Face the Nation, CNN, NBC News, CBS, The Times and The Sunday Times and The Guardian.

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